Marc
Welcome back to another episode of Crunching the Numbers with Shane Liyanage and Marc Sophoulis.
Shane
Hi guys.
Marc
Thanks again Shane for obviously, putting a lot of work into what we're doing here I know I know you're, you're a very prepared kind of guy and I love what you do in terms of your preparation for this kind of stuff, but we're here to talk today about the first four games. So it's not a huge topic that obviously people have spoken about in the past but we as, obviously, a partnership in what we do with our players have spoken a lot about the first four games and its impact on the match. Not necessarily just from a game perspective but from a mentality of, you know, if we can get a really good start. What does that mean to us? So, from your perspective, what do you think the first four games mean to most players or what should they mean to most place?
Shane
Yeah, look. Look for what it's worth, I think the first four games, looking at it has a lot of merit in the sense that it's the first time both players play on both sides of the court. Particularly important when you're playing a lot of the ITF or the grassroots tennis where you might have one side significantly different to the other. It's also your on average 15 to 20 minutes into, into the match at this point so you've had a good feel for it. So I think it's important to look at this as maybe a first KPI - a benchmark as to how are you going.
And then I talked about initially in that first podcast about winning 53%, getting you to top 10 on the men's tour (I think it's 34% on the women's tour). I had a look at a couple of the big guys and girls, their winning percentage in the first four games and Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Serena Williams, Simona Halep, they all actually win over 55% of points in that first four game block, what that tells me is they're immediately putting pressure on their opponents, and they're often up a break at this point. So looking at a slightly different way - Novak Djokovic on average after four games is winning 2.72 games so he's up a break.
Marc
But okay, that's obviously it's really good to know that. Why do you think the reason is behind that? So obviously there's certain different patterns of play, there's you know different opponents you play against obviously, you know some players have got a bigger server than others etc, but why do you think from a numbers perspective is that the case?
Shane
Look, I think a lot of it's between what's between the ears, and also the preparation they do in the locker room. They're all, they all have routines slightly different. You're obviously aware of Nadal’s routines. But he's very... what's the right word for it ... He's very deliberate in how he prepares, so I think by the time he's playing that first point, he knows he's playing that first point. I think some of the some of the other players, they kind of let things drift a little bit too much and before they know what they're in the second or third game.
Marc
I think you're right there the pre-match preparation is one of my pet peeves on a lot of kids because they've come into a match without warming up properly, or without hitting balls before the match. And that to me is just, they're trying to find their rhythm in the match and I think that's a really hard one if you're a tennis player trying to find rhythm in the first four games, you're probably going to be three one down. If you've already got your rhythm pre-match, I think it's a really big thing to have, because if you start at three one up - that's a huge mental advantage you have then on your opponent.
Shane
Yeah, absolutely. And I think we've actually got a really good practical example given, we worked with a specific athlete at the AO (Australian Open) and they were really struggling. So talk about Djokovic being 2.72, winning 2.72 games in the first four - this athlete was, in their last 15 matches, only winning 0.8. So, they were often down 3-1 or 4-0 at this point. So, that was an area that we knew we had to address. We looked at things in terms of their first serve numbers were down, more unforced errors. But it was a bit more to that and Marc you really changed it...
Marc
Yeah, I think, from your discussion we had and Shane did some numbers on a player I was coaching at the Australian Open, who as Shane said he was he was winning 0.8 of a game within the first four games of every match. So, most of the time he was either 0-4 down, 0-3 down. Very rarely 2-2 or very 3-1 up. Not at all actually in those matches that we had in the last 15. So for me as a coach, it was about how is this happening? Why is it happening and what do I need to do about it to help him change?
So we literally changed his pre-match routine and we changed his pre-match routine from an off court perspective. So I found that he was doing a hitting warm up that was no more than 10 to 15 minutes. We extended that to 30 minutes. I found that in his pre-match warm up he wasn't playing at match intensity. So we change his pre-match warm up to match intensity. I found that he wasn't eating before he was playing. So basically he would eat in the morning, from about 8am, we'd have practice at like 9:30am or 10am and then his match would start at 11am. And he wouldn't eat between the time he left his hotel, which was at 7:30am in the morning, right the way to the end of his match, so he just had no energy come match time, so the only thing that got him going was adrenaline and I found that we had to change that whole pre-match routine and obviously now that he's played I think it's about 10 or so matches since that time he's now up around 2 or 2.5?
Shane
2.7 I think. In this stretch his worst has been 2-2, whereas previously he was lucky to get to 2-2.
Marc
Yeah and as a coach for me that's not only building confidence, but it's also destroying the confidence of the opponent straight off the bat. If you're, you know out there and you're 3-1 up, or you're 2-2 and you're riding that match, it just puts a lot of pressure back on the opponent. So I felt like that's been a really big change for our athlete and I think he'll continue to work on that and I think it's something you'll continue to evolve. But I also challenge you out there - if you're a coach or a parent or player out there that's really struggling in the first four games, have a think about what you do pre-match because for us the pre-match preparation is the most important part of actually getting on that court and playing the match.
Shane
Absolutely.
Marc
Is there any evidence as well from the top players that you've got here, obviously in your research that can help us out to give our listeners an idea about you know what they can do to increase the first four games.
Shane
Yeah. So the four players that I mentioned at the start. One of the areas that they do exceptionally well is return. Very well from the beginning, so they're winning over 50% of return points in that four game block, and that goes a long way to breaking their opponent early on. So I think I alluded to Djokovic winning 2.72 games if you've watched him at the Australian Open, I think he was up a break in four of the seven matches in that first four game block.
Marc
And it just put so much pressure on the opponent to have to then start to do more and they start to panic and start to rush, and then you're always on the backfoot trying to catch up and I feel like, you know, if you if you get a player on the backfoot, you're in such control of the match and you control the tempo and the way the match flows, and I feel like Novak does that extremely well he gets on top early. He puts you into a little rabbit hole and says okay stay there until I let you come out.
Shane
Yeah, absolutely. So, other other things that you can potentially consider are: if your athlete or you're prone to making more unforced errors early or not getting returns into play, you can adjust your return position. So I think the first four games are important to sort of tinker with that and get an understanding of the environment and conditions and work out maybe on this side, I'll return at this point... this area and on the other side you might return a bit deeper because the wind is different.
Marc
I guess I want to ask you this question, I think it's important How much of the first four games for those top players that you mentioned, come down to the ability for them to have the data and the game planning and the research behind their opponents so they can actually hit the ground running come that first game?
Shane
I actually think that data is probably most important in that first four game block in the first set. I think as the match progresses intuitively players start recognising patterns that are going on. But in that first four game block, you're probably the most vulnerable, if your opponent comes in very prepared.
Marc
Yeah, and I think that's the biggest challenge now is that, obviously guys like yourself who charge an arm and a leg for what you do... you're obviously on the big dollars sitting behind your computer on the numbers. I think it's really it's obviously these guys are at the top level, those top four, five to ten players in the world have access to this which a lot of players don't and it gives you that advantage. Even if it's 1% or 2% like you said to start the match well. And then once the match is going it's all instinct, and you don't want to take the instinct away from the player and reading and generating their own gameplay.
Shane
Yeah, absolutely. Look I think, hopefully, the next four or five years or hopefully sooner, more players will get access to data. I think there's more sensors ITF approved more sensors on court, and on your recquets and things like that so I think data will be more accessible and again we will probably go back to this it's how then you're able to interpret it and that be the key.
Marc
I guess at the same time though, players can still... as we were spoken about in past episodes, they can still access their own data if they were to get video of their own matches and be able to just do the stats themselves, they can come up with some sort of game plan and formulate around what they're doing as well to help them, and give them a better understanding of what they're doing and how they can move forward with that.
Shane
Yeah, absolutely. And I certainly recommend players to at least watch your match back. Whether you win or lose. In fact, if you lose I think it's actually more important for you to actually watch that footage. But, you'll gain something there and then if you're able to tag that match and collect some data. Eventually you'll have a number of matches and you can start seeing patterns that work well for you, patterns that don't work well for you and start looking at things like the first four games.
Marc
Yeah, I think it's really important. I've got a lot of young kids that I coach and there'd be a few coaches out there that will hopefully listen to our podcast and try and work out what they can do for players that are not a recreational level, but a junior level when they're out there playing tournament and they don't have access to all the numbers, the vision the data, etc. And one of the keys that I look at is, once you walk on court, you're not out there to try and get your feel, okay you're there to try and beat the opponent. So if you're trying to get your feel you're in trouble. So get your player prepared really early. I think it's like, from my perspective, I try and get the guys to play to your strengths. So we talked about what we work on in training and their strengths, which may be, use the forehand as much as you can early on. Once you've got your strings firing, I think it's really good from a confidence perspective to be able to replicate success because the more success you have with your weapons, the better you're going to feel. So I guess that's a really big, big point there and obviously with the return of serve - is neutralizing the game. So when you're in return position try and neutralize as much as possible, put them on the back foot, and you know, get a really good chance of the first strike in the rally.
Shane
Yeah, absolutely.
Marc
Shane, obviously the first four games is critical. We hope that people out there are going to start thinking about what they do in terms of their preparation before matches. Coaches start thinking about how to prepare players and parents start thinking about how you may talk to your child pre-match because obviously they're nervous anyway, so we've got to get them starting really well. I do appreciate your time and the work that you're putting into your numbers and obviously, hopefully you are getting something out there to the public. The tennis public out there that want to learn a little bit about the game and what the numbers actually mean, and hopefully we're able to simplify for you. Again we're brought to you by The Tennis Menu, which we're out, online at the moment, check us out and also Data Driven Sports Analytics.
Hopefully we've taken, you've taken something from what we've spoken about over the last few episodes. We'll continue to bring you the latest in data and numbers and hopefully dissect the game as simply as possible for you out there to take onto the court. So good luck and thanks once again Shane.
Shane
Thanks guys.
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